OpenID will succeed.
Where Microsoft failed, the open source, non profit OpenID will work. It will work because people are sick and tired of trying to manage multiple log-ins across all of the sites that they visit, there is no company at the centre for people to get nervous about handing their information over to and in these highly competitive times, where the user is king, websites are falling over themselves to make the user experience better than their competitors.
In every verticle we will see one player jump on board in order to offer a better experience and we will then see every competitor jump on board, not to be outdone.
I give it 18 months. By the end of 2008 I believe we will see 80% of the most popular websites supporting OpenID.
